Number
Deep Sentinel: 1 guard per 100 homes makes $100/mo security viable
Dave Selinger explains how Deep Sentinel undercuts the $30K-$100K/month cost of a personal billionaire guard. Using AI to filter events, one guard covers ~100 properties, making live human-monitored security affordable at a $100/month starting price.
$100
Properties monitored per guard · properties/guard
“We have a ratio of about 1 guard for every about 100 properties right now. And that's how we make it so that it's affordable because it's $100 a month, kind of our starting price point. And if you think about like having a security guard at your house, if you happen to, you know, have a bunch of friends who are billionaires, for example, they're spending $30,000 to $100,000 a month for a security guard.”
Number
A $100-$10K/month supply-constrained gap in the security market
Dave sizes the security market: alarms ~$20B, guards ~$20-30B. Deep Sentinel hits a never-before-served price band between $100 and $10,000 a month that is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained.
$20000M
Alarm market size · USD
“So the alarm side's about $20 billion and then the guard side's like $20 to $30 billion. But what Deep Sentinel hits is like this really kind of weird seam where there hasn't been a solution at all ever. And that price point's between about $100 a month and $10,000 a month. There is nothing. And, and there's nothing there not because there's no demand, it's supply-side constrained.”
Story
The schlocky hotel guard: 15 minutes of coverage for $3,000/mo
Dave illustrates Deep Sentinel's untapped seam with a hotel-owner friend paying a sloppy guard $3,000/month who shows up three times a night for five minutes each, just 15 minutes of real security over 10 hours. Deep Sentinel offers 24/7 monitoring for ~$1,000/month.
“he shows up 3 times a night. This is for $3,000 a month. He shows up 3 times a night and just walks around the parking lot for about 5 minutes. He gets a total of 15 minutes of security over the course of 10 hours, and it's $3,000. Whereas with us, we'd be able to provide that service for, for maybe $1,000 a month, and there'd be someone watching 24/7 in case something happened.”
Idea
Human-in-the-loop opportunity: replace people who move cash
Dave points to cash logistics as an unsolved human-in-the-loop opportunity. In the age of Venmo, PayPal, and Apple Pay, companies still make $100M/year with a 'cash' line of business where people risk their lives moving paper money around.
“There are still companies that make $100 million a year and they have a line of business called cash. In the age of Venmo and in the age of PayPal and in the age of Apple Money and Facebook Money and every type of virtual currency in the world, there's still people getting paid money to put their lives in danger to go move pieces of paper around.”
Fact
Agricultural mail theft: meth-driven crews farm neighborhoods
Dave describes a pattern Deep Sentinel sees: meth-driven thieves systematically 'farm' neighborhoods on a cyclical schedule, checking every door and mailbox, and carefully replacing the mail so the area keeps producing, like tending crops.
“And meth has created this entire lifestyle where these people actually go and farm neighborhoods. And they'll go in a cyclical schedule, go from this neighborhood tonight to this neighborhood next week and this neighborhood, and they literally check every single door, every single mailbox, as it— as again, kind of tending it like they would be tending their plants in agriculture.”
Number
ADT's hidden leverage: $6B market cap, $10B debt, ~$16B EV
Dave reveals ADT's real scale: a $6B market cap masks $10B in debt, giving an enterprise value of $15-16B against ~$5B in revenue. The incumbents are debt-laden sleeping giants unlikely to reinvent themselves.
“They have a $6 billion market cap because they have $10 billion in debt. So they actually have an enterprise value of $15 billion, $16 billion.”