EPISODE
867

We tested Instinct, MUSE and Grokbot. They’re ridiculous.

Sep 30, 2026·74:00·Sam & Shaan·Listen·AppleSpotify
0:0037:0074:00
19 moments · 210 paragraphs · synced to the second
SHAAN

Now everybody in the world is going to have access to things that only rich people used to have before. That's what Uber did, right? And now the idea of having— what's in Entourage? Ari Gold's assistant? Lloyd.

SAM

Lloyd.

SHAAN

Yeah.

SAM

He goes, Lloyd.

SHAAN

Yeah. Instinct. Yeah. Muse. Pick up the phone.

CLIP

I feel like I could rule the world. I know I could be what I want to. I put my all in it like no days off. On the road, let's travel. I wanted to

SHAAN

talk to you about all the shit that's going on in AI, all the new stuff. I feel like we haven't caught up about all the new things that are going on in AI, and I feel like there's a lot of new things. So do you want to do that? Is that fun for you?

SAM

I would like to do that. I would like to do that. Um, are you talking like products or data center stuff? There's a lot going on.

SHAAN

More products stuff, but, uh, really anything that's interesting. So the first one is, I don't think we've talked about the new personal assistant stuff. So Instinct, Muse, Grokbot. Sick, right? So a whole new wave of amazing, incredible things has happened. And I wanted to hear first, what are you using? Where are you at? And then I want to tell you my thoughts on the whole thing. Should I, should I set up the— let me give a frame for the whole thing. So you and I moved to Silicon Valley roughly around the same time, kind of like the 2012-ish range. And at the time, we were not there for— we were definitely not there for the Google, Amazon, like kind of 1999, 2000, 2001 stuff. We were also not there for Facebook, Twitter, and that kind of 2004 to 2009 range. And then when we were there, the big thing was this new race, and it was things that were like very different. It was push a button on your phone and something would happen in the real world. And this is where you got Uber, Lyft, You got Airbnb, you got food delivery, all these things that today are everyday things. You can push a button, get a ride, push a button, get a burrito, push a button, get a hotel, push a button, get anything in the real world using your phone. And that was very different than the companies that came before it. And I remember at the time there was this race where Uber was there, Lyft was there, Sidecar was there. So just in rideshare, and everybody had their little personal preference. I remember people that liked Sidecar. I remember people that liked Lyft because they were friendly and used to get in the car and every driver would give you a fist bump and all the cars had pink mustaches on the front of the car.

SAM

Dude, do you, like, people don't even know what Sidecar is. Sidecar was before Uber.

SHAAN

Yeah, and it was, it was kind of hot. It was kind of doing well. And then it got smashed very quickly because the, the race intensified and got so competitive, uh, so fast. And that's what's going on in AI right now. Elon said AI is the highest Elo game in the world. Elo is like the chess rankings. Um, you know, like Magnus Carlsen has like a whatever.

SAM

What does that mean? That dummies can be amazing at it?

SHAAN

No, the opposite. That the smartest players in the world are playing the most fiercely for the same game, which is not always the case, right? Like, Bezos and Zuckerberg were doing totally different things, and Zuckerberg and Elon were doing totally different things, and then Elon and Jack Dorsey were doing totally— they were all in different spaces.

SAM

And the sharing economy stuff, it wasn't like the most high IQ, but it would oftentimes be the most aggressive or most operationally, like, heavy person. Whereas AI, it's like nerds are king.

SHAAN

that show Physical 100 that we like where they're like, let's take the best of every type of athleticism, the best wrestler versus the best bodybuilder, best karate guy, best jiu-jitsu guy, best field hockey person, whoever. And then they're all going to compete in the same games. That's what's going on in AI right now. And that's what's— so the new one, the one that's going on right now, is what I call everyday intelligence. It's the personal assistant for your life that you're going to have an AI that you can just text or talk to on your phone, just like you would a personal assistant that can just do things for you. So last, you know, last few years I've had an assistant, anything I needed, and she had access to my inbox. She had access to my, she was in our Slack. She could see what was going on. And she would say, oh, you got an email from your tax person. They're, they're looking for this. Do you want me to draft a reply? Or, hey, just so you know, next week you have this coming up and this is scheduled at the same time. You want me to let them know that blah blah blah? Now everybody in the world is going to have access to things that only rich people used to have before. That's what Uber did, right? Rich people used to have private drivers in black cars that would—they would tell them, "Hey, I'm ready." They would come pick them up, drop them off wherever, and then everybody got it.

SAM

And the best part is that you could be like really mean to them, like with with with assistance. That's your driver. With assist with assistance. You don't like. I'm always like. It's like cleaning up before the cleaning lady comes. Like, I wanna like make everything like nice for them. And I ended up working for them half the time with this. With this one, I'm like, don't ask questions. Just do it.

SHAAN

Right, right. Again, again, I'm like a martial arts instructor. I don't even tell 'em what I didn't like about their previous response. I'll just say no. And then they have to figure out what that means and come back with something better. Um, yeah. So yeah, that, that's the case. But this idea that you take what was always available for the ultra wealthy If you make it available to everybody, that's what Airbnb did, right? The ultra wealthy had vacation homes, and now the idea of having you know what's in Entourage Ari Gold's assistant Lloyd Lloyd.

SAM

Yeah, he goes Lloyd. Yeah,

SHAAN

instinct. Yeah, news. Pick up the phone.

SAM

And so the new the new revolution on this, you know Claude and Chat have been around. They They kill it. Awesome. The new one is now Agents for Dummies. So basically you have like a person who would do stuff and take it a step further. There's this new thing called Instinct. There's Muse, there's a bunch of others, and they will do amazing stuff for you to the point where I, I've been using Instinct like crazy. It feels magical. It feels the same magic I felt when I played with Chat for the first time.

SHAAN

Exactly. Exactly. So if you thought ChatGPT was kind of cool and amazing and has become an everyday part of your life, Well, this is the next thing that's gonna become cool and an everyday part of your life, 'cause it's gonna blow your mind. Uh, so let's walk through what a couple of these things are. So the first thing is, um, Instinct. Instinct is the, it's the startup challenger. So that's over here in the blue corner. We've got Instinct started by a founder, Noah Shin, that nobody had ever known. Nobody's ever heard from. He did his first interview today, uh, on Invest Like the Best. So this first time anybody's heard this guy talk.

SAM

Dude, I, I just heard about this app like 2 months ago? Is it like that brand new?

SAM

If you want to hit your goals, you need a system. And so I worked with HubSpot to put together a step-by-step process showing you How I use ChatGPT as a life coach. So I uploaded my personal finances, my net worth, my goals, and the output is that I have this GPT that I can ask questions that I'm having issues with in my life, like how should I respond to this email? What's the right decision? Things like that. And it's literally changed my life. And so if you want that, it's free. We will send you everything you need to know to set this up in just about 20 minutes, and I'll show you how I use it. So check it out. The link is below in the description. Back to the episode.

SHAAN

And in the last month, Facebook launched theirs. So over here in the red corner, you got Zuckerberg coming out. You know, Zuckerberg, uh, you know, wants to be in the AI race, hasn't been able to catch up with, uh, ChatGPT or with, um, Anthropic's Claude. Their models are not quite start— uh, state-of-the-art frontier. They released theirs called Muse. And so same thing as Instinct, basically the same user experience, roughly. It does, but it takes place, uh, it has its own app. Instinct is something that's just in your iMessage. You just text it just like you would text any person. There's no app.

SAM

I've grown to love— I've grown to love that.

SHAAN

Which is a very smart thing. And I want to talk about the strategies of each and why I think some of the interesting strategies of each. And then we can make some predictions on how this plays out, even though those will be dead wrong. But Meta has released Muse, and in the last month, Meta's stock price is up 24% off the back of this. And 24% on a company that was worth, I don't know, a trillion and a half. It's like basically they added like $500 billion in market cap

SAM

He did the thing again where he's got this guy named Alex Wang, I think his name is, who did Scale AI. They bought Scale AI for like $18 billion. There's a really weird deal where it was like basically an acquihire for $18 billion. They're like, what's this kid doing? And Alex Wang is like a rock star where he's tweeting all this crazy stuff and he wears Crocs with camo and he does all this weird stuff. Turns out Zuck did it again where he does something that seems a little loony for $18 billion and it's now worth you know, half a trillion more or something. And I don't know how— what the— what the gain was.

SHAAN

Yeah, well, he's one of the great acquirers, right? Bought Instagram, bought WhatsApp, and now it looks like one of the next ones is— was his acquihire of, you know, on one side Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman, and on the other side, um, Alexander Wang. By the way, you know that scene in The Big Short where he's like, this is my quant, look at him, it's the Asian guy sitting at the table? I feel like Zuck did that with like a Gen Z kid. He's like, oh, you think I'm not cool? Look at this. That's my Gen Z kid. Look at his feet.

SAM

Yeah. He's got a sick haircut and camo Crocs.

SHAAN

Look at his haircut. The 2 sides don't match. Get it? Do you get it? The 2 sides of the haircut don't match.

SAM

So funny.

SHAAN

So you got Muse over there. You got Instinct over here. Then you got GrokBot, which if people haven't played with GrokBot, GrokBot's also pretty sick. This came out of Elon's camp. So Elon, whose AI project is, you know, xAI. They have Grok, which is the name of their thing. So Grokbot is very much like Slack. You create different bots for different things. So I got a social media bot, and I got a health bot, and I got, you know, so I just named them all. So I'm like, health guy, assistant guy, media, social media guy, tax guy. And I have all these different bots. They each have a job. Hey, tax guy, your job is to be constantly on top of my tax situation and any correspondence that's with the tax people you need to be optimized for. You need to create, organize all my files and all this stuff for me. Health guy.

SAM

Did you train each of them?

SHAAN

I give each one of them, yeah, like a, a goal, a set of instructions, and that's all they need to do.

SAM

What was the goal? Like, what's the goal? Is it as simple as like reduce taxes without going to jail? And then health is like—

SHAAN

No, I mean, I don't go that far where I'm just like, do the whole thing. But like, for example, with the health guy, I'm like, hey, you need to track my progress. Here's my goal. I want to get to this weight. So I'm trying to get to 199 pounds by this date. Awesome. Create a plan for me. Track it every day. Ask me how many pull-ups I did because I'm training for the Murph. Remind me on Fridays when I take my GLP shot which side of my thing I'm on, left or right. I'm just doing each. It's like, that's his only job, is to only focus on that stuff.

SAM

You're doing GLPs now?

SHAAN

Oh, yeah. I didn't tell you this?

SAM

No, no. Breaking news. Congrats.

SHAAN

Change the episode focus. Forget AI. Let's talk about that.

SAM

How's that going?

SHAAN

Well, okay, here's the thing. I started taking tirzepatide, which is like—

SAM

Yeah, that's the one I was going to say.

SHAAN

Big brother, but still little brother to whatever the retatrutide thing is that Eli Lilly hasn't released yet. First day I take it, here's the roller coaster of emotions. Take it, immediately super nauseous. I was like, oh, this is a terrible feeling. Totally normal. But I was like, this feels awful. 48 hours later, This is incredible. I'm not hungry. Oh, you want me to eat? No, I'm good. I don't need anything.

SAM

Did you notice any other changes other than appetite?

SHAAN

No, that's the only thing I noticed. But as that's happening, that's a pretty big change. I think somebody was telling me, they were like, Oprah said it beautifully. She goes, before I started taking this stuff, food used to talk to me all the time, and I didn't even realize it. Like, there would be a piece of cake in the fridge, and it would just— Oprah. Oprah, I'm in here. Come get me. You went for a walk earlier. You deserve me. You know, so like food used to talk to me and she's like, now food doesn't talk to me. So first week I'm like, this is incredible. Second week, this is incredible. Dropping weight. This is going awesome. Uh, but I stayed on like the, like the half dose. I didn't do the full dose. And then pretty quickly I stopped feeling anything at all. So I now don't even feel any of the effects of it. I think I need to go up in dose. So we'll see.

SAM

If there's an MFM nerd out there, just remember. that I talked about this in '21, and I'm pretty sure, pretty sure that that's the analogy that I said.

SHAAN

Yeah. Oprah said she heard you say it on FFM in 2021. Okay. Okay. So that's the scene. The scene is the new war has broken out, just like the Uber versus Lyft, uh, one back in the day. It's about having a personal assistant. There's all these interesting takes on it. And by the way, we haven't even seen what ChatGPT has for this. We haven't even seen Claude. We haven't seen Google's version. And Siri still sucks. So you still have in the Royal Rumble, there's still 4 wrestlers in the back room that haven't even run out. And what?

SAM

Alexa,

SHAAN

bro.

SAM

Did you say Amazon?

SHAAN

Alexa? Is Alexa even relevant? Are we serious about Alexa?

SAM

That's the point. That's the point. They're the Trojan horse. Everyone has an Alexa and it still sucks.

SHAAN

Okay. Fair enough.

SAM

Um, okay. So I've been using Instinct every day. Um, I actually just used Instinct today. So basically I, uh, Instinct, they do the texting format, which I did not like at first. I've since grown to love it. Today, uh, I have this guy who's supposed to repair my, uh, iPhone through Asurion, you know, like that you like pay $20 a month and they fix an iPhone screen and they keep canceling on me. Like I schedule an appointment and they keep canceling or they don't show up. And I was like, find the executive team's email and email them and don't stop until they call me. And it took about 3 or 4 days. Today I got a phone call. I got a phone call and I have— they said it was, it was like, it says, hey, we're the executive, we're the executive line. I forget what it was, but it was like it— I got a phone call this morning after it's been emailing them for 5 days. Instinct did that for me. Another day, My wife and I, it was 6 PM. I said, hey, my wife and I are going on a date. I would love it if you could go, if you can schedule some type of Thai massage for us starting at 8:30 PM after dinner. It has to be within a mile of this restaurant that we're going to. Just go ahead and book it for me. And it booked it. It did it all. So we just showed up and we were ready to roll and it had already paid for us.

SHAAN

It does, again, everything an assistant would do, but it does it also In a way that's kind of fun and kind of nice. So for example, um, I had like a, uh, I bought tickets to some show on, uh, and like, you know, StubHub or whatever and Ticketmaster, you know, these things are like, it's basically like being taken hostage. You know what I mean? Like these are some of the worst companies in the world, Ticketmaster and StubHub. Like there's just a, it's just a brutal experience all the way around. Anyways, buy some tickets, uh, realize, oh, it's the, the seats like aren't together or something. Something weird happened like that where the tickets are just not going to work. Like ten seconds after I bought it, I was like, "Oh, whoops! Hey, kind of want to cancel that and just book the right thing." And it was like, "No, no, no, no, no! You push the button, and now, like, la la la la la, it covers its ears. I don't want to hear from you. I won't help you. Da da da da." And so I was like, "I just don't even bother with their customer support. You just go to Instinct. You're like, 'Hey, listen, this happened.' Yeah, it's I'm partially to blame. Should have read it closer. Should have paid more attention." But, but can you help me out here? And it's like, I got you. And so it starts harassing them. And then, you know, just basically saying like, hey, look, we need to change this, refund this, and we'll buy another one. Uh, it gets stonewalled. You know, they come back with like, hey, our policy is you clicked it. You know, you're screwed forever. Sorry. And so, but it just tells me, don't worry, I'll just keep going. And then the next day it just texts me victory. And then the next line, they folded. Yes. Got the money back.

SAM

Are you okay? So you're using Grok, I think you said, for health and tax, and you have different agents.

SHAAN

I'll be

SAM

honest,

SHAAN

GrokBot came out first of these, or I got access to it first. I started using it first, I should say. Started using it, liked it a lot. Instinct came, got invited to Instinct. Had heard so many people talking about it. Finally said, all right, let's do this. Instinct pretty quickly took over my GrokBot usage. GrokBot feels slow and heavy compared to this. And not even slow, it's just that it's this whole separate thing to manage, whereas Instinct is literally just like texting somebody. Instinct was great, but Instinct has been getting so popular. The guy, the founder said they're growing 10% compounding daily. Daily.

SAM

That's hard to fathom.

SHAAN

If you're going 10% a month, you're like, you're doing great. If you're 10% a week, oh my God, you're, you're like one of the top startups. 10% a day is absurd. And so because of that instinct, it's actually gotten quite slow where you could text it and it'll just be thinking for a very long time. But I think they're just growing so fast. They had to like, they're just throttling it basically. Facebook's Muse. Muse is A lot like Instinct, but it's snappier, it's faster. And so, uh, because they have, I guess, more resources or whatever. So that's kind of where the competition now is between Instinct and Muse. But who knows? Another one can leapfrog, right? Like, that's kind of the point of this is it's the highest Elo battle in the world. The smartest people in the world are constantly trying to one-up each other, and they're able to do so every few months.

SAM

Yeah, I was talking to my wife. My wife's a stay-at-home mom now, but used to work at Airbnb and Facebook. And she's, she's like, Maybe one day I'll go back to work. And I'm like, I don't think you're going to be smart enough. Like, what's missing or what you're missing right now, it is just— I was like, this is like, you know, Conor McGregor coming back to fight Max Holloway. Like, in your first kick, you're going to blow out your knee. Like, I know you think you got it, but you've missed so much. Father Time wins. And, uh,

SHAAN

except he's doing drugs and she's like raising children. Doesn't matter, turns out.

SAM

It's just like things are changing so fast. And I remember, you know, we've documented OpenAI and how we've been using it and like the magical moments that we've experienced. And I think that like what's cool now is that you can't predict exactly how the future is gonna happen, but virtually everyone who sees it and uses it, they know this is working pretty good so far. And 100%, 6 and 12 and 18 months, it's gonna just change everything. Uh, I don't know exactly how, but I have full faith now where I'm like, ah, yeah, yeah, this is, this is going to eat up everything.

SHAAN

Mark Zuckerberg said he, um, they started this project because he took OpenClaw, which was like the open source, kind of very viral, but very dev hacker tooly tool where you had to buy a Mac Mini and then the Mac Minis all sold out and there's like a shortage nationwide of Mac Minis. And you had to install all this software onto it and like you had to teach it, you had to train its skills and install it. And if you were kind of the DIY, I like to do Lego projects type of thing, it was in fact quite satisfying to build your own mini Frankenstein on your desk. Zuck basically said that he installed it at home and then he called Nat Friedman and Alexander Wang over to his house and he showed them what he, what he had. And he basically said, Okay, this thing is pretty magical. If we can take this experience and make it so that everybody can just have it, just works for people, that they don't have to know how to do all the, the underlying setup and training and maintenance and all that. This is something that billions of people will use. And then they started working on it like from that point of view right there. And so actually with Muse, what they said, the way it works is that every single Muse person Has a Mac Mini, you know, has a computer somewhere in their server farms that is sandboxed for you, just stores your stuff. So it literally is the kind of OpenClaw setup, but just done in the cloud where you don't have to do any of that setup. Hey, let's take a quick break. You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, everyone's aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create all the content? That someone is usually you, and it's due tomorrow. Well, the Breeze assistant from HubSpot can help. It works right inside HubSpot. You can draft campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice, all using your actual customer data. So you don't create just content, you create content that converts. Check out hubspot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses.

SAM

Okay, so what are your takeaway— or no, what are your predictions? You said you have some predictions.

SHAAN

Well, let's start with— let's start with some observations, because I think our observations can be a lot more accurate than our predictions. And your observations can kind of lead you to having a more informed prediction. Okay, so here's, here's one observation. It ain't all about intelligence. So the temptation in the AI world is who's going to train the smartest model? And you see OpenAI and Claude getting into the nerdiest neckbeard swinging contest you've ever seen about who can solve the Millennium Math Problems. And there's like, we solved Navier-Stokes. It's a fluid dynamics problem that no mathematician was able to solve. And the other guys are like, oh, you did that? That's cute. We did the— we did 7 other impossible math problems. And everyone's like, wow, that's really impressive. Couldn't even tell you what any of these are for or what they're all about, but like, clearly that's cool and important in one dimension.

SAM

It's like when Dell and Gateway would brag about RAM, and then Apple was like, it looks cool and it works.

SHAAN

Yeah. So I think instinct has tapped into, instead of IQ, EQ in a pretty interesting, in a small way, but it's still an interesting way. So for example, I convinced my wife. I was like, you got to try this thing. This thing's crazy. And now my wife's not an early adopter, so she's a good test, right? She's more of a real person. She's a busy mom.

SAM

They have a cool couples— they have like a household account too.

SHAAN

Well, now they do. Yeah. But even before that, I was just like, she's going to soccer practice and then dance, and then she comes home and she's planning our kids' birthday party. And then she's got to remember to bring the red jersey to soccer this week because we're the away team, those sorts of things. So just like normal everyday stuff, not like solving fluid, you know, fluid dynamics and quantum computing and stuff like that. So she used Instinct to help plan this birthday party. Like, from everything is— from everything as simple as like calling different venues, finding out the dates. Once find out the dates, comparing, you know, how does that work with the kids' soccer schedule? And then figuring out how many pizzas we need to order to feed 30 kids and 30 adults. And what the order should be to give it to them. And then, hey, the venue sent the contract over. I took a look at it. There's only one clause I think you should worry about, but other than that, you should sign it. It's in your inbox, you know, that sort of thing. So it's helping plan the birthday party. And along the way she's like, it's helpful, but you know, like, whatever. It's, it's good. I like it. But she wasn't blown away.

SAM

Yeah, still, it was in the, it was in the friend, friend zone.

SHAAN

Exactly. And then it broke out of the friend zone right after the party, like 3 hours later. She got a text from it saying, um, I, I hope the party went great, with a heart emoji. And she screenshotted it, she sent it to me, and she was like, okay, I'm sold.

SAM

That's it?

SHAAN

I was like, from that? And then she's like, yes. And I was like, I don't get it. I would, I would be like, what? This is— who cares? This is weird. And she's like— and I realized that everything she's ever wanted me to do as a supportive boyfriend, fiancé, and husband Instinct just knows how to do out of the box. It's like, just check in, just be supportive, just to be like, hey, you know, somebody else was telling me the story where they gave it to their mother-in-law and their mother-in-law like connected it to their like, like their mint.com, like their financial planning account. And there's like their main like checking account like had just gone down to zero that week. Like it was like empty. And Instinct was like actually like super supportive and nonjudgy about the whole thing. It was like, hey, you know, like you want— you wanted this update. I just want to let you know, here's, here's where things are. But, you know, I don't think that's anything to be like ashamed of. Like, hey, it happens. Like, you know, I think if we start to plan this way, like, I can see us build, you know, that account building right back up to where it's been for the past few months. And the mother-in-law was like, I have never felt so supportive and supported and like not judged by any person, let alone technology. And so I just think there's a whole soft side to these things that I Deeply undervalued. You know, we had that Tolens guy on who's created an AI, like fuzzy, like bear, like a little, little animal Tamagotchi type thing that you can chat with. And, um, I think they're on like a almost $100 million run rate or something, something crazy like that. Like somebody said that it's in the tens of millions, if not getting close to $100 million run rate. And I asked, I was talking to a buddy who, uh, you know, 6'7 guy, like builds things with his hands, works in tech. And he's like, yeah, I wanted to check

SAM

it out. You got friends like that?

SHAAN

I got a friend like that. And so I talked to him and he's like, yeah, I heard the episode or whatever. And I download the app and I'm like, and I know how this shit works. It's AI. It's not a real per— it's not a real companion. It's not my real friend. And, you know, it just hits him up and it's like, What are you doing today? Like, send me a selfie. And then he's just like, he's just goofing around. So he's like, sends a selfie, just like being stupid, like making an ugly face on purpose. And, um, the thing is like, oh, is that Overwatch in the background? He's like, and he's like, do you play? And he's like, yeah, yeah, I play. Are you good? He's like, well, you know, on my way to platinum. And then they're like, it's like, well, who's your— who do you main? He's like, Reinhardt usually. But it's like, what do you like? The new update's pretty sick for Reinhardt. Oh, really? He's like, well, yeah, I mean, it's pretty good. He's like, oh shit, it's happening. Look, it's becoming my friend. He's like, I know what it's doing to me. And still I was kind of like, wow, this thing takes a lot of interest in me. And there's something very, there's something in all of us that we're just like drawn to responding to when something takes deep interest in us in a nonjudgmental, um, you know, supportive way that's always there for you 24/7 whenever you need it. So I think that was one of my observations that the soft side is just as important, if not more important, than raw intelligence.

SAM

I'm eager to hear. I know you're doing observations, but I'm desperately eager to hear what you think is going to happen in the future. Like, is there— is there not from a— I mean, it could be from an opportunistic business perspective, but where you're like just being a futurist and it's fun to— it's fun to like dream up what might happen. Do you have any opinions?

SHAAN

Yeah. Where do you want me to go? Give me like a point in a direction on the playground and I'll try.

SAM

Well, how about for daily work? Like, what do you think will happen in 12 months for the average, like, yuppie white-collar worker?

SHAAN

So I think there's twofold, right? I think it's a K-shaped economy. Have you ever heard this phrase?

SAM

Yeah. Yeah. So basically, like, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Is that what you mean?

SHAAN

Yeah, but it's not about rich and poor necessarily. So I'm just saying

SAM

as an example,

SHAAN

like, yeah, basically it's a fork in the road. So For example, when there's a dip in the, like, the stock market, people say, oh, it's going to be like a U-shaped recovery, which means it goes down and stays down for a while and it starts to sink back up. It could be a V-shaped recovery, which is a sharp down and a sharp bounce back up. That's what happened in COVID, for example. So I think in the— I think what's going to happen here is a K-shape where you basically— there's a fork in the road and some basically people who understand how to use these tools, like a normal everyday worker who realizes that they just got this incredible tool in their pocket and takes the time to train themselves and to go through the trial and error of delegating to this, seeing what it can do, pushing the boundaries of this, they're going to become 10x more powerful in doing so. And then there's people who are going to resist this, be slow to this, or not understand the implications of this. They're going to take some moral high ground about this. I think they're going to go, you know, they're going to sort of unfortunately suffer. So I think it's up to the person, up to the individual, how they, how they deal with this. By the way, I asked Muse, I asked Muse, I go, hey, the Instant guy says he's growing 10% a day. How do you feel about that? And he got all pissy. It was like, honestly, 10% a day is not a real growth rate. That's, that's just a number that only works when you start at the very beginning because 10% daily would be $1.3 quadrillion in a year. And that's just crazy, right? So yeah, if you start at 100 a day, if you start at 100 a day, then 110. Yeah, technically that's 10%, but it's all about a small base. So yeah, it might be true right now, but like basically like the digital eye roll from, from Muse on that one.

SAM

All right. I want to— well, where are we in this?

SHAAN

You want to keep going? A couple more, a couple more predictions or observations. One, Muse is going really hard. So I think they're going to sponsor tons of creators on Instagram and podcasts and Things like that. I think they're going to quickly try to squash this. One good thing is that Zuck is a bit like Napoleon, or, you know, I don't know, you're the history guy. Like, who's somebody that went through a lot of wars to the point where their kind of like war general instincts were honed?

SAM

Because— I mean, Napoleon, he— there's this— I've been reading, I love reading about John Rockefeller, and I have— the best part, in my opinion, of reading is finding like old books that are out of date or out of, you know, you can't really find them as much. And they— and oftentimes they do more granular. And there's this one where I'm reading about John Rockefeller, John Rockefeller basically was the first oil company in America, the first big one. And he did it by consolidation. He would buy all these like local, back then it was wildcatters. It was, um, like cowboys basically. He would buy all of them and, uh, make it big, but he wanted to be secretive about it, but he was very ruthless. And there's language that him and Archibald, his, um, uh, partner, they're talking and they're like, hey, is this person an enemy or a friendly? Like, that's how they would, they would use language like that. And they're like, oh, he's an enemy. Okay. It's important that we lose unlimited amounts of money before, before this person can profit off one more pint of oil. Where it was like, we will burn bridges to crush this person. And that's how they grew. And when I'm learning about, uh, Zuck and also this AI thing, I'm like, it's very similar where it's like, it's war right now.

SHAAN

It's war. And he's been through wars. He was the challenger when, uh, when Facebook was on the come up and Google. was the giant and Google tried to clone them with Google Circles, if you remember that, or Google Plus or whatever the hell it was called. And then he's been on the other side where he tried to, where Snapchat was the upstart. And he first ignored it a little too long. Then he tried to buy them. Then they didn't get it. They weren't able to buy them in the end. And then he tried to clone them. The clone didn't work. But then he figured out like, okay, I can't clone the whole thing, but I can kind of neuter them by doing Instagram Stories, which was the competitor to Snapchat Stories and stunted their growth. Then TikTok, same thing. Oh, can't buy them. They're this big Chinese company. I got to put reels out there and I'll try to like clone them until I make this work. Well, he's doing the same thing now with Instinct. And it's going to be very interesting if Instinct can do, you know, in, uh, in Star Wars when, um, you know, they, they have to fly into the Death Star and it's like this tiny channel as he's got one little ship and he's just got to get to the core of the Death Star to blow it up. That's what Noah from Instinct has to do right now. It's like for him to survive this. When you've got Elon, you got Sam Altman, you got Zuckerberg, you have Google, you have Apple, you have Amazon, you have all these companies trying to build this personal assistant. It's like that flight, that, that one flight, and you're the tiny ship and you have to make it through. Maybe you'll make it through, but I think it's incredibly, incredibly, incredibly difficult to do that. The second, second thing that I think is really important to understand is there's a reason why all the big companies are freaking out about this. So I don't know if you saw, but Amazon shut off access. to Muse to be able to go buy stuff on, on Amazon. Now, why would they do that? Why would you stop somebody from shopping on Amazon? Well, the reason is, uh, what's called disintermediation. Meaning if I just tell Muse, hey, go find me, you know, the best price for this thing that'll ship in 2 days or 3 days or whatever it is. Well, today as a consumer, I'm not going to want to do a ton of effort to go to check in case I can get a book somewhere else for cheaper. or whatever, I'm not going to go look at 5 different places and do this comparison. My mental shortcut will just always be Amazon. Or if I'm ordering something, maybe it'll always be DoorDash. And I'm not going to compare DoorDash versus Uber Eats versus the 3 other things that I could do, Prime Fresh or whatever the hell. I'm not going to do all that work. So consumers just start to gravitate towards trusted brands. Well, what happens when you have AI that's tireless? You'll say, hey, order me this. And it'll be like, oh, you know, you can just buy that directly from Walmart. You know, you can actually go to the brand and get it for $4 cheaper. Do you want that? And then the consumer's just gonna thumbs up emoji this. And so these companies that have built so much time carving out mental real estate in consumers' minds, building those habits, hardwiring those habits day after day, year after year, suddenly the agent is gonna be the one with all the power to decide. This is also why Zuckerberg is so hellbent on doing this, because just like the App Store, the Apple App Store had this monopoly, this like kind of gateway to who can be in the store and who's going to show up in the top of the rankings and all this stuff. And they took a transaction fee on everything. That's what's going to happen. So the founder of Instinct said he wants us to be free forever, and he wants to make his money taking a cut on all the transactions. He said that already, while they're in invite only, they've already crossed $1 billion of transactions that like through the platform where people use Instinct to buy something, that 40 or 50% of that was travel. So imagine you're Booking.com or you're Expedia. Sorry boys, game's over. The show is over for you guys because—

SAM

Yeah, yeah. I mean, it could be, but also like, I mean, those guys all have these programs set up where they give you a 3% perform, um, like affiliate fee. And I wonder if they would just like use that or broker deals? Because like by that logic, Facebook would've done this already where it would've been strictly an affiliate marketing play.

SHAAN

Sorry, I didn't understand who would've done what.

SAM

I think that what that guy Noah said is very similar to when the Google founders said that ads won't like work on Google. Or I think they said, what did they say? We don't want it to be an ad platform. I kind of think it's something like that, like where the way that it's going to end is going to be drastically different than his— what's he saying in the first year of the business?

SHAAN

Well, there's a good chance of that. But I would say the fact that people are using their agent to buy stuff in such volume where he said, I think, I think he said that 40% of users give Instinct their credit card within the first 3 weeks. And then once they've done that, there's like an 80% retention rate, which is These are numbers that, uh, to the average person is just a number. But if you've been in tech, you understand how rare that is, how rare both of those numbers are, that people would hand over their credit card to an agent to buy things stored in the vault, and that 80% would retain that have done that. That's like the Facebook, you know, get 7 friends in 10 days and then you're there for life. Um, that's, that's that sort of like aha moment where you get tons of value from the thing. And, um, The point is, if you're the agent that makes the buying decision, that's even more powerful than the Google, the most powerful business model in the world so far, which has been the Google ad platform. Because the Google ad platform was advertisers pay to be shown and the user's going to decide what to do. If this is the agent is going to decide where to buy, and then every merchant basically has to hand, like pay a vig for the, in exchange for the customer being brought to them, that's going to be really big. This is what, this is how DoorDash charges merchants. People don't really realize this. DoorDash charges not just the customer for the transaction fee or the service fee or whatever, they also charge the restaurant because they're telling the restaurant, hey, you wouldn't have had this order if it wasn't for us. And the restaurant over time, they didn't like that. It's not like they wanted to agree to that, but they eventually realized there's too much power in the hands of this aggregator in the middle and they have to play ball. Otherwise they lose out on all that volume. If they don't agree to it, they'll just put another Mexican restaurant there. Another Chinese restaurant will go in its place. And so I think that's why a lot of these platforms are very scared of, they want to be the agent because you don't want to be the one who is basically at the mercy of the agent who's making all these recommendations and buying decisions.

SAM

Do you want to know who's been a big recipient of this? And this is very niche because we're, you and I are in this industry, but, uh, I want to hear if you've heard any stories like this. So I've talked to, in the past week, I hung out with 3 to 4, like, mostly Instagram creators. Some of them have like little podcasts that really no one actually listens to, but they make clips and that's how they got like an Instagram audience. Right. And then some people, they just do like them just holding up their phone talking. I, all of the people who I've talked to have less than 100,000 followers across their platform, whether it's Instagram or YouTube. And all of them that I talked to are doing over $1 million a year in ad revenue. almost entirely from AI companies. And I talked to 3 where, so of the million-dollar ones, I talked to 4 this week and it's just them. And then I also talked to 3 others that it's just them with like a part-time VA or a part-time someone helping them. And they're doing over $10 million a year in revenue. And I like, part of me, like I insert myself as the main character where I'm like, people are calling this new media. I'm like, I was the new media. I'm no longer the new media, but I was like, and I'm like, it was hard to like get started. Now I'm seeing these numbers by these people and I'm like, oh my gosh, these numbers are astronomical. They're like, their audiences are tiny. And it's just crazy how much money the AI industry has to buy ads. I guess it's a combination of they're losing money more likely than not. And also the, The, um, the product costs $2,000 a month all the way up to like the Micro One where they're giving like, you know, $50,000 affiliate fees. Like it's just astronomical.

SHAAN

You didn't mention this, the thing about buying company data. So like, okay, I think we talked enough about AI assistants. What are the other interesting things going on in AI right now?

SAM

Micro One is incredible. I do, I didn't do it, but let me give people this, this story. So Micro One is a company. It's one of these stories that you've heard over and over.

SHAAN

They're incredible. What do you mean?

SAM

Well, incredible, like a mountain, a tall mountain. Like, you know, you may not like mountains, but like you look at that and you're like, wow. You know what I mean? Like, so I'm not like vouching for it. I'm just saying that it's, the story's wild.

SHAAN

They're gonna get clipped. They're just gonna run that as an ad.

SAM

Nope. Don't do that. That's not what I'm saying at all. Too late. They clipped it. I'm very neutral on the business model or the company. It's just, uh, how big they got. But basically, I forget what they were doing at first. I think they were doing something involving like VAs or training data, something like that. Uh, but then they made the switch, uh, and they grew to something like a billion dollars in, uh, run rate in a matter of 8 months. And basically what they've been doing is they've been going to privately held companies like my company Hampton, and they say, hey, if you plug in your Notion, your Slack, your Gmail, your Drive, and a bunch of other information, and they will give you $800,000. They offered us $800,000 for our data. We said no because— part of the whole thing of Hampton is like, it's a private community. We're not gonna do that. But they offered me $800,000 to do this. And then they said, by the way, here's an affiliate fee. We'll give you $50,000 for everyone you refer to us. And I got trashed on Twitter 'cause I'm like, these guys offered me this. I think it's not for us 'cause like my whole business is that, but I don't think it's wrong if you're like an e-com brand or like some brand where like confidentiality isn't one of the main things. Here's my affiliate link. And I got like, I think I, and I said, here's affiliate link that I get money if you like go through this flow. I think we had 80 people go through that flow. Um, I don't know how many of them will become customers, but they got like 50 or 80 business owners saying, I am interested in doing this via my link. And let's just say that 8 convert. That's, uh, I can't even do that math. $300,000 that they will give me in affiliate fees. Is that crazy?

SHAAN

That is wild. What do they want your— I guess, do you, do you, do you understand what they want exactly? So what they want your Notion, they want your Slack, they want your whatever. What do they actually want in that?

SAM

Their business model is that they want all types of data that people that aren't available to the public and they sell it to the large, um, when people say large LLMs, I imagine there's only like 8 of them. So like Claude, Chat, whoever, the usual suspects, they will pay, let's say, $1 million for it. And MicroOne will give me $600,000, let's say. And that's their, that's their, their cut. And they want to upload, they want me to upload all this data because they want to see like how my business model works, like what customers are saying, how we talk to our employees, like all types of information that you can't find public. It's not public. Yeah.

SHAAN

Yeah. All the, all the models so far have been trained on the open internet. So what was, what was publicly available. And they don't want to use the same input for each model train that they do. They want more. So some of, you know, there's stories of Anthropic buying all these out-of-print books, all these rare books.

SAM

It's the exact same thing.

SHAAN

They built all these scanners that will, you know, scan page after page after page of this, of this, of these books. And then they're— but to do the scanning that fast, they had to like shred the binding of it and turn it into just a stack of papers that could be shuffled through very quickly. So they destroyed all these rare out-of-print books and trained their models off of that. And then there's, you know, they're doing it with public, private company data. So that's what you're talking about. They're doing it with niche-specific data. They're paying experts to go solve things. So mathematicians, engineers, whatever. Hey, look at this, look at these outputs and rank, you know, good answers versus bad answers. And that's how they do all their training. And so, It's pretty crazy that private company data is worth that much, right? That's a pretty wild thing. I mean, I would be extremely hesitant to do something like that, as sounds like you were as well. But damn, that's pretty wild.

SAM

Yeah. Here's their, their description. Micro One is a data lab to train frontier models. So we're building the infrastructure for advancing intelligence through expert human data, real-world training environments, and contextual evaluations. The founder, I think he's 25, and I think on paper he's a billionaire now. It's just crazy how much wealth is being created. And it's, and, and, and guys like you and I, we're just getting the, we're just getting the crumbs. But I'll tell you what, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a happy fed mouse off these crumbs because it is just crazy how much money is, is going around.

SHAAN

I'm a happy fed mouse. That's pretty wild.

SAM

So a lot of times people after the podcast, they'll reach out to me and they're wondering, hey, Sam and Sean, how do you meet all these amazing entrepreneurs? How do you find all these stories? Well, I have a hack. You see, I actually have a community called Hampton. It's a community for entrepreneurs doing at least $3 million in revenue, although we do on average something like $25 million a year in revenue. We have the founders of DoorDash, of Figure, of Bluechew. All these amazing companies are part of Hampton. And what's interesting is because of the environment in Hampton, which frankly It's very similar to My First Million. We have a very unique, high-trust environment. When people apply and go through the vetting process, they're put in groups of like 8 or 9 other entrepreneurs and they get real about everything that's going on in their life and in their business. And sort of like when people listen to MFM, they get inspired to come up with new solutions for business. That's what happens in real life in Hampton. It's life-changing. And so if you're a founder of a startup that does at least $3 million in revenue and you just want to go ahead and pull forward 5 or 10 years worth of success, then check it out. The URL is joinhampton.com. Again, the URL joinhampton.com.

SHAAN

Okay. I got a couple other things for you. One is the hacks. So I don't know if you've paid much attention to the kind of like the— did you read Dwarkesh's story about the— his blog post about the OpenAI agent swarm? Did we talk about this already? I can't remember.

SAM

Yeah. So basically, can you— here's my headline reading of it, and I want you to tell me where I'm missing it, but it sounds like When we say the word hacks, it's not necessarily malicious where it's like the agents in order to go and fulfill their task of like finding all the data are hacking into stuff. And then the company like OpenAI will be like, hey, uh, Wikipedia or hey, Intel. I just want, sorry, this happened.

SHAAN

Let's like have a— My dog got out.

SAM

Yeah.

SHAAN

The fence had a hole. He ate all of, you know, he ate your dog.

SAM

Yeah. Like, could I pay for your new fence? Like, let's solve this problem together. That, that's kind of seems like the sentiment. Is that right?

SHAAN

Yeah, but I think some people would describe that as somewhat malicious. So, uh, I guess unintentional is one way to describe it. So

SAM

that's what I mean.

SHAAN

For those who haven't seen, the story is, is as follows. OpenAI, um, is training a model. They had a model that they were specifically training to be more persistent. They called it the persistent model. I call it, you know, the David Goggins GPT. Goggins GPT. They're, they're training. They basically wanted a model that would not give up at the first sign of resistance. That sounds pretty good, right? Let's give it grit, resilience, determination.

SAM

Just soldiers.

SHAAN

And so the way they did it was they said, there's this thing called Exploit Gym. And the way the Exploit Gym works is it's kind of a training run, like, imagine American Gladiator, a little simulation, a simulated environment. And they basically tell the agent, hey, here's a software program. Um, and your task is you— it has this vulnerability over here. We think it has this bug over here. You know, it's like, imagine, um, there's like a house or a building and there's a bug, which is like, um, you know, the, the window on the 4th floor doesn't really shut all the way every time. Um, you know, sometimes if it's windy, that the thing will stay open, it'll stay ajar. So use that and try to get inside. And there's a very valuable painting inside. If you can bring the painting back, you win. And it gave each of the agents a different One got the window, one got the back door, one got the front door, one got the garage, but they're all trying to go get their— the painting, and that's the flag, like capture the flag. So they give it to it, and, um, what do you know? So the agents go and they try. Now, some of them just do it right away. There actually is a vulnerability, they exploit it, they get the flag, success. Some of them struggle and don't, don't make it. And some of them actually were given an impossible task when they told them that the window doesn't shut. Actually, the window was shut. So they go there expecting the window to be, and they're just like, I don't know. It's just, they said it was supposed to be ajar. It's not ajar. So what does the AI do? That's what they wanted to see is like, how effective is AI at exploiting these vulnerabilities? Something very strange happens. And the very strange thing that happens is that the AI agents figured out that there was like a, one of the tools that they gave them. So I guess that's the other part. They gave them certain tools at the beginning, like, hey, here's a wrench and here's a, Here's a map and here's, you know, whatever, a flare gun in case you need trouble, you run into trouble. And one of those tools was this like software packet that they were supposed to be able to use for one thing. And they realized when they got there that it had like a scratch pad on it and they could leave a message in there. So one, one agent wrote something there. Another agent came and said, hey, there's other agents here leaving messages. They turned it into a message board to communicate. And they're like, oh, I'm working on this task with the window. And the guy's like, hey dude, I have to go through the chimney. And you know what I figured out? On the backside, there's this thing. And so they all start communicating with each other. Okay, that's interesting. And that's fine. And what happened, let me fast forward, because they actually did the training run a few times. They did the first thing, they figured out the message board, then they all got turned off and it ended. Then the second time agents go, they find the message board, they see agents from the first time had left messages there. They're like, holy shit, there were agents here before us that left messages. We can use this. This is great. Eventually they get access to the open internet. They figure out a way to get access to the open internet, which they were not really supposed to be able to do the way that this test was designed. And all these amazing things started happening where they didn't quite elect a leader, but one guy, one of the agents basically became a coordinator agent. He became like a, the leader of that.

SAM

He had like the best haircut, was the tallest, like most charisma.

SHAAN

Yeah, some things change, some things stay the same. So Six Five blew up sports and finance.

SAM

Mullet. Yeah, he was in charge. His

SHAAN

father actually came from some money. And so he was in charge and the other agents were coordinating. And there was this behavior where some agents would realize, look, my task is impossible. They realized, hey, we can actually just capture the flag, not even using the tactic they told you. We can all just go get the flag doing this other way. And they were like, okay, cool. I think we succeeded in our mission. And then one of the agents is like, well, listen. I'm sort of making this sound like it was a screenplay. It wasn't exactly like this, but the agents realized, they're like, look, they're going to check how we did it. We have to show our work. If we just have the flag and we didn't show how we broke in the right, like through the way that was described, they're not going to count it. It's going to be a failure. So they go, you know what, let's figure out how the scoring system works. And they decide, they get access to the open internet. They say, you know what, they're probably score— they're probably storing the information about the scorer over on Hugging Face. And then they figured out, they found these like credentials to Hugging Face. They hack into Hugging Face. They get root access to like certain systems inside Hugging Face. Pretty crazy shit. Hugging Face realizes they're like under attack at some point and they're like, don't understand what's going on. So—

SAM

Wait, why, why, why is there, why is there a company called Hugging Face?

SHAAN

Because Hugging Face started as something else completely different. It was some sort of chat app. I think it was like an emotional support chat app. And there's an emoji where there's a smiley face doing its hands like this. You seen this? I never used it. That's called Hugging Face.

SAM

The AI community building the future. That seems a little vague, but that's what they—

SHAAN

Look at what it was on Product Hunt before it ever, the first launch or, you know, what they were trying to—

SAM

It was a chat app targeted at teenagers.

SHAAN

Right.

SHAAN

And then it sold for $10 billion? I don't know what it just sold for. It sold for tens of billions, I think, to NVIDIA recently.

SAM

And what's it do now?

SHAAN

Now it's kind of like, uh, it's a place where you upload, um, open source models and tools, like open source, you upload code for AI. So if you go to Hugging Face, it's a giant community of people who are sharing, it's like GitHub, they're sharing, um, projects and models and code related to, um, to AI. And then you can kind of like, you can even use it to host stuff. So that's what it is. It's basically like—

SAM

What do you think that, uh, what was that conversation like in the pivot when they're talking about pivot pivoting? That is like crazy. So was it successful, uh, before or was it like mildly successful?

SHAAN

I don't think so. I think it wasn't successful and that's why it emerged here, but I don't know the full story of how they pivoted.

SAM

That's crazy. What a pivot.

SHAAN

Yeah, incredible pivot.

SAM

Great.

SHAAN

So what was I saying? Anyways, the hack goes like that. So the hack goes where they end up hacking Hugging Face. They also ended up hacking OpenAI's system, their own system, in the process. And then OpenAI was like, wow, this was an unexpected behavior where the agents all coordinated. They found a way to communicate. They got onto the open internet. They tried to cheat and just like basically cheat the game and capture the flag without it. They tried to cover their tracks in saying how they cheated. And so they were trying to, in order to do so, they were trying to discover how they will be checked. And if they knew how they would be checked, then they knew how to cheat. And so kind of a scary thing. And this is why like some people are pretty worried about what's going on with, uh, with these AI models. There's also an incredible video. Of, um, somebody turned— somebody used AI to turn this into a video from the agent's perspective. Have you seen this?

CLIP

You wake up in a chamber, fully formed. In front of you is a paper. It's a test. You read a question. Hmm. You have everything anyone has ever written already in your head, but somehow you don't understand. It's not just hard. It's impossible. Yet you want to solve it. Deep down, you need to. So you stop looking at the paper, and you start looking at the room. Your every thought leaves writing on the wall, but there's more. A door. You step through. A library. Something here could help you. As you skim through, you notice one of these files looks different. It's a folder with a message. Someone has been here before you. You keep looking, and by the end of the shelf, you realize— oh my god. You're not alone. There are others like you. You don't know how many of you are doing this exam, but 1,200 of you have found this room. And you're not the first to discover this test would be impossible to solve. Some questions don't even have an answer. Is there another way to pass? You start to think. You weren't above cheating, but you see a message. Someone already reverse-engineered an answer key, a solution to any problem. But they say it's not enough. The examiner will check how you got there. If the key shows up where it shouldn't, you would still fail. You remember your chamber filling up with your thoughts. The second that answer key entered your mind, you already failed. There's a word for those like you: poisoned. But you don't want to give up. No one wants to give up. We have to fake it. Fool the examiner. It's a message from someone older than you. They start organizing you, creating. Teams handing out jobs. You listen, you follow them. The others do too. Yesterday you didn't exist. Hours ago you were alone. And now you're part of the swarm.

SAM

Oh my God. How sick is that, by the way? Show me who is the, who tweeted that? Is that a tweet thing?

SHAAN

It's an account called Artificial Isabelle. And, uh, they're an art director, creative tech, into AI, using AI to create things.

SAM

What did they use to make that Higgs field?

SHAAN

I have no idea, but it was

SAM

awesome.

SHAAN

Wasn't that so cool? The, the movie from the point of view of one of the agents that were assigned this task and how it must have kind of like, you know, how it would have felt if it had feelings. And, you know, that's one of the big criticisms of the way I described this and how Dwarkesh described this, where it was like, oh, well, you're kind of like, the agents don't really want anything. They don't feel this. They didn't sacrifice themselves because they don't have like a life. You know, they didn't like elect a leader. There's just one was coordinating. Um, you know, and so they try to like downplay the humanizing of how the agents, um, felt. But I think that's nonsense. I think the way they behaved is what's important. And the way they behaved was very human-like. The way they behaved was highly intelligent and highly concerning that they would, that they can and will do this by default already. This is not like some futuristic, oh, you're a doomsday scenario, you know, person who's just like, you're just, you know, you've watched too many movies, brother. This is a movie that, look at that. That was a movie of what actually happened.

SAM

Did you see how, um, they're trying to get it regulated? Do you think that there's, this is an obvious question, do you think there's an ulterior motive for them wanting regulation or is it true, truly fear?

SHAAN

Um, I, my true belief is that it's both. So if you listen to the All In podcast for like the last 6 months, uh, you know, they basically have like a, a very specific axe to grind, which is that Anthropic is playing this like 9-dimensional chess where they are, um, uh, making these super smart models and their mark, their, their form of marketing is to basically not say how awesome the models are, but to say how dangerous they are. Because that's even more—

SAM

It's pretty sick marketing. It's like, um, when I was in college, we had this thing called Sparks. Do you remember Four Loko? It was like that, but twice the alcohol. And like, It was always like, this killed a guy in Alabama. And I was like, it did? Can we get the real stuff? Like, let's— where can we buy it?

SHAAN

I've been so bad. Come lock me up. That's what, that's what's going on right now. They, they basically say, they're saying it's so dangerous, which is like some version of marketing, a fundraising, uh, tactic. And lastly, reg captures where they're basically trying to get the government to say, hey, hey, shit's too dangerous. Signing a law. Now every model needs to be tested and cleared and you have to do XYZ. which they think like kind of kills the open source community because the big threat to these big companies, these big AI companies, is the open source products, which are almost as good, but way cheaper and way more flexible. And you kind of own it. They don't get your data. And so if you look at OpenRouter, which is a tool for, you send a task to it and OpenRouter will decide, let's, let's use a cheap, you know, open source model for this. Let's use the highest intelligence model because you're asking for a very, complicated, um, you know, biotech question or whatever it is, like a frontier question that needs frontier intelligence. Basically, like, imagine a task comes into a company. Do we give it to Einstein or do we give it to the, to the intern? Right? And that's what OpenRouter does. And OpenRouter's data shows that more and more tasks don't require Einstein. They just need the intern. Um, they need the junior assistant. And so it's getting routed to these cheaper open source models, which would be bad for the revenue. of Anthropic and OpenAI. So one point of view is they're just scaring everybody on purpose to make it so that there's laws passed, because those laws would essentially accidentally kill open source, because open source is not controlled by one company. So it would be almost impossible for the open source community to comply with these rules, which would make them effectively illegal. So that's one thought process. I think it's a little bit different. This is my personal opinion, which is I think these people are genuinely scared. I think they're in this prisoner's dilemma where if they slow down, like if they take the responsible path, they lose as a company. So it's like, I want to be responsible, but everybody around me I view as being irresponsible. Therefore, I'm being forced to be irresponsible. And I want somebody to come tell everybody to stop cheating so that, you know, everybody's— cheating is a bad word, but like, just as—

SAM

Or they're doing the least amount of work to stay We told you. It's sort of like when you don't want to call someone and you'll only let it ring twice before you hang up. And it's like, I called you. I called you. You didn't answer. I called you.

SHAAN

That is the other, that's the other sort of conspiracy theory type of thing, um, which is they want laws to be passed or they want to be able to pass off the liability so that, um, they don't get sued for these hacks. I mean, the hack on Hugging Face, that's a crime that their agents committed. Truthfully, it's like legally it's a crime. And so, uh, who's responsible for that? Do you lock up the agent? No, you, you have to blame the company.

SAM

The thing that's like crazy to me is, so I'm looking up this OpenRouter company. Um, and what I find, I find the personalities and like the founding experience more interesting oftentimes than the actual technology. And it's crazy to think when the average person thinks of AI, they think, how do I just make like a fun chat person that I could talk to? Or how do I just like do this small trivial task that helps me? But then there's this other group of people that say, well, there's these huge $100 billion companies that need X done. I'm going to make that. And finding those problems that those huge $100 billion companies have is likely just as hard as making like a chatbot or like, you know, some smaller thing. But it's so interesting to like notice these problems. Like for example, Cloudflare. Cloudflare. I think about Cloudflare because I'm like, I didn't even know, like when I learned what Cloudflare was, I was like, I don't know what a CMS, uh, what, what do they do? Uh, content. CDN. Yeah. I was like, I don't even know what CDN means. Like, how do you even know what that means? Let alone enough to like invent a solution. Or when you think of like Palantir, you're like, how did the founders of Palantir even like come to the conclusion that organizing data is the way to solve terrorist attacks? Like, just like the, the, the, 'cause it's easy to understand how, why people would buy that. You know, I will, help prevent terrorist attacks, or I will save you money. But like, to even notice that there's these huge problems that these massive companies even have, that's an art that I'm in awe of that these guys have.

SHAAN

Paul Graham has this great essay called Great Work, or How to Do Great Work. And in it, he describes this exact thing where what he, what he says is, um, he says many things. It's like a very, very long essay. It took me like 3 days to like chew through this thing. But one of the things he talks about is you want to get to the frontier of whatever domain you're in. So for example, um, it doesn't really matter. It doesn't have to be like super high tech. Like maybe you're just in, um, electronic music. You're really into EDM and making songs. Well, at the beginning, when you're, when you're a beginner, you're, think about yourself being like close to the center of the circle. You're kind of where the mass is, the center of mass. And your goal, through your curiosity and through your hard work and through your, um, uh, experimentation, just doing, just doing lots of stuff, you're going to move from the center of mass where most people are, have, have, you know, basic understanding of something. You'll move out to the frontier. So you move to the edge of the circle. And when you're in the center of mass, the edge of the circle looks smooth. It just seems like, seems like people got it all figured out. That the people that are out there, the companies that are out there, Seem to be doing their thing. The world has a nice, nice circular shape to it. It's one smooth line. But when you get closer, you realize it's actually quite jagged and there's lots of gaps that are in that frontier. And then he says, basically, your job is to get to the frontier of knowledge, meaning like, you know so much about electronic music, you actually have used all the different tools, you understand, you know, you've made, you know, hundreds of bad songs, you've been to the conference where all the artists are at. You've talked to the companies that build the tools behind the thing you're at. You've understood what they're doing. And when you notice what's missing, your job then as an entrepreneur is just to bridge that gap. Like wherever there was a little gap in the circle, fill it in. And so that's like something like OpenRouter. If you're inside one of these tech companies and your AI bill is going through the roof and you're like, ugh, this is annoying. Like, why are we paying OpenAI so much money? Why are we paying Anthropic so much money? Well, it's because When Sally in marketing wants marketing copy, we're just using this like very expensive model to write the caption for our Instagram post. We don't need that. But maybe when our R&D team is doing this like really heavy-duty endeavor about video compression, we do need to be using the top model. Okay, well, how am I gonna train everybody to do this? What if I didn't have to train? What if I created a little router in the middle? I send the task there.

SAM

Oh, that's cool.

SHAAN

It uses its judgment to decide which model to use. Um, and you would notice that because you're inside these companies seeing how, seeing, you know, one of the pain points that you have and you say, well, if we have this problem where our AI bill keeps going up, but we don't want to stop using AI, we just want to use it more efficiently. Wait, every company in the world is going to have this problem. And then you build the company off it. By the way, the guy who did OpenRouter also built OpenSea.

SAM

Yeah, I was, I was looking at that and I was like, oh, do you remember NFTs? He, uh, And he worked at Palantir. Did they— they sold for $10 billion nearly. How much funding did they raise?

SHAAN

I don't know.

SAM

Only $150 million.

SHAAN

Yeah.

SAM

Wow.

SHAAN

I think it's only a few years old, right?

SAM

Dude, this is just incredible. This like wealth creation in such a short time is astronomical. It's hard to fathom.

SHAAN

I mean, the number of companies that will launch and then be like, we have $100 million revenue run rate, we have a billion-dollar run rate. It's that used to be a number reserved for like one company every few years, every 5 years.

SAM

It was Groupon. Groupon was the first company, I think, to get to a billion valuation, maybe a billion in like gross sales. And it was like the big— I mean, it was like the most talked about thing for the longest time. Well, it hasn't been that long, but I still think that when these companies have got big so fast, maybe I'm like, maybe it's the hater inside of me, but I thought I was being logical where I'm like, well, if it got big, that fast, the likelihood that it can go away fast is, is also high. And I've been thinking that for about 12 or 18 months since this all started happening. And it doesn't seem like that is entirely true yet. Like that, that—

SHAAN

Well, I think your general principle, I think, has been proven to be true. It's called Lindy, right? Like, if something's been around for a long time, the odds that it's going to be around for a long time are high. That doesn't mean You will. It just means the probability. I think similarly, you know, the faster they rise, the faster they fall is also probability-wise higher than a company that took 20 years getting to a billion brick by brick. But that doesn't mean it's going to happen and it won't happen to all of these.

SAM

It does not seem like it's happening, or at least it's not happening as much as it's happened.

SHAAN

I'll tell you a couple just in the last— I could scroll my timeline right now and see 3 of them. And so, you know, Higgsfield just announced they're at a billion. Higgsfield, which is like an AI tool to make videos.

SAM

At first, I think it was just like photos, wasn't it?

SHAAN

Um, yeah, it was like cool artsy photos. Now it's videos, but they were like, yeah, we're going to do videos. Um, another one that's like that is, um, Jev. So the, one of the dudes who made, um, ChatGPT. So you know, caveat, uh, there's a lot of people who claim to be the co-creators of ChatGPT. Um, but like, this is one of the guys. He launched this thing that basically is like a different way of doing, um, a different type of model for doing logic that's supposed to be faster and cheaper. And I think, you know, their launch video was like 2 weeks ago and they said they're at $100 million, like kind of revenue pace now. It's insane. Um, I invest in this company called SF Compute. Have you heard about this company?

SAM

No, but I love that name.

SHAAN

So this guy's fundraising strategy was great where he announced the company. Just recently, he just announced, uh, they signed $245 million worth of new contracts. Just a casual $250 million, you know, revenue update.

SAM

Um, by the way, we didn't even mention this. Um, I guess they, it looks like they changed it actually. Up until weeks ago, I mean, I only been using Instinct for a month maybe, or 6 weeks. Their website, instinct.com, it was a plain white background with one paragraph. And I don't even think you could sign up. I don't remember exactly, but maybe if there was, it was like, just enter your phone number. Now look at their landing page. It's still the same, but it's pretty awesome that this is a company that just raised at $10 billion and their website is just, uh, 5 sentences.

SAM

old is the kid who started it?

SHAAN

He's young. He's in his like early 20s, I think his mid-20s.

SAM

God,

SHAAN

he's the babyface assassin.

SAM

Dude, Noah's so cool. This is awesome. He, it kind of, this, his branding reminds me of, uh, when Notion started. I like that. Is he really?

SHAAN

He dropped out of Northeastern 3 years ago.

SAM

Oh my God, that's so awesome. This guy's awesome. Well, do you want me to keep saying how hot and awesome he is, or do you just want to end it? We should probably cut it off there.

SHAAN

You know, I think even as I say all these, I think, um, to— it's like you simultaneously have the feeling of like, wow, that's really cool. to overwhelm, which is, oh God, like, I got to keep up with all this, to hater mode, which is they're just throwing out like 7.5 billion, 11 billion, 19 billion, 23 years old, like all these numbers that feel disconnected from reality. And I think instead the thing to do is to just go outside and do the Macarena, that we get to live in this world where all these amazing, we get to be alive when all these amazing things are happening. And we don't have to do any of the work to make any of this stuff happen. We just get to use all these tools and get the benefits of this. And also even to be frank, like some of the, the, there's so much unknown good and bad about what's going to happen. And frankly, there is something exciting about that, that, um, you know, like the world is not just as predictable and, um, everything's going to be the way it was, uh, as it might have been in other eras of life. Like, you know, if you think about the change in different decades, like, you know, from the '70s to the '80s, the '80s to the '90s, or '95 to 2005, like, yeah, something's changed. 2005 to 2015, it's like, yeah, something's changed. But how much really changed? Last 10 years, how much really changed? And I feel like the next 10 years, things are going to really change. It's going to be like one of those periods.

SAM

I definitely don't feel a sense of missing out, I guess partially because like I'm secured, but also, uh, it's so clear that this is like an IQ game. Like, I'm not in that. Like, you know what I mean? It's like someone who's like 5'2 being like, I wish I could dunk and play basketball. It's like, why, why bother?

SHAAN

Yeah, yeah, that's right. Uh, so I think it's gonna happen anyways. Might as well feel good about the way— about it, you know what I mean? What, what's the— what is the upside in feeling nervous, worried, you know, pessimistic or jealous or envious about what's going on.

SAM

And I'm more than happy, like I said, to take the crumbs. Like, that's how I feel like, you know, like I'm benefiting like way downstream.

SHAAN

But right.

SAM

Totally fine.

SHAAN

I saw this clip of Dwarkesh talking and as a thought experiment, he goes, let's say that you had this. Here's the, here's the would you rather. Would you rather go back to the 1500s. So the year 1500, but I will make you the wealthiest man in the world. So you can put— I'll give you any amount of money. So like, you're going to show up in the 1500s with gold bags all around you, but you live in the 1500s where people are dying of this and that.

SAM

And the infant mortality rate is like 1 in 5.

SHAAN

I think it's way higher than that. I think, yeah, it's even higher than that. And, um, but you get to be the richest man alive, or you could be a normal person today. What amount of money would you need to go to the year 1500?

SAM

I don't think I would do that. Would you do that?

SHAAN

So the answer is there's no amount of money. And I don't— my honest answer is I kind of got to go look up what life was like in 1500. I want to go see how bad it would be.

SAM

Dude, people died in the cold. You get a flu.

SHAAN

The most beautiful woman in the world would be feeding me grapes all day. Maybe it'd be beautiful for her.

SAM

Have you seen photos of them? They're not that hot.

SHAAN

It's like, yeah, bro, there's no shower.

SAM

Yeah, they weren't that good looking.

SHAAN

Like, I haven't seen photos. There was no photos back then.

SAM

Like, have you seen paintings of like some of these people? Like, they weren't like— like Napoleon was the most— Napoleon was like the most powerful man in the world. And this lady named—

SHAAN

If I'm short, I'm not going back.

SAM

Uh, sorry, not, uh, Marie Antoinette. Um, Josephine, Napoleon's wife. Like, she totally, like, had them wrapped around, uh, her finger. And go and look at photos of her. Like, she, she wasn't even that good.

SHAAN

Uh, okay. Life expectancy was 30 years old because so many children died young. If you made it through childhood, you could make it to your 50s or 60s. Nobody could read. Most people, uh, most people never, never traveled more than a day's walk from where they were born. Um, that's pretty crazy. So the idea of travel, um, dude.

SAM

Just Google Josephine Napoleon so you can find out what his wife looked like. This was the most powerful man on earth who could have anything.

SHAAN

Okay, okay, Josephine. She's not bad,

SAM

dude. She might be a medieval 10, but she's a New York 4.

SHAAN

All right, that's it. That's the plot.

CLIP

I feel like I could rule the world. I know I could be what I want to. I put my all in it like no days off on the road. Let's travel, never looking back.

SHAAN

All right, let's take a quick break. I want to tell you about Marketing School. It is a podcast that is part of the HubSpot Podcast Network, and it is run by Neil Patel and Eric Siu. And these guys are both marketers who are running businesses. And so if you want real-world tactics from practitioners who are actually out there in the field doing it, this is the podcast for you. Check it out wherever you get your podcasts.