John Coogan

Varda: manufacturing in space where gravity is an off switch

Varda Space Industries partners with SpaceX to launch capsules, then manufactures products in microgravity, growing crystals, drugs, heart tissue and specialty fiber that are hard to make on Earth, plus defense applications. A multi-decade, capital-intensive bet riding falling launch costs.

“So they manufacture things in space. So they do not build the rockets. They partner with SpaceX to launch a capsule. And then inside that capsule, they effectively have created a manufacturing environment where gravity is an off switch.”

TrueMed: an HSA/FSA 'pay' button is an index fund on wellness

TrueMed adds a compliant 'pay with HSA/FSA' button to online checkouts, clearing eligibility via embedded telehealth so customers buy supplements, peptides, Eight Sleeps etc. with pretax dollars. Because it takes a cut across the whole wellness category, you're not exposed to any single product trend.

“So when you go to— whether it's peptides that are going to be popular or Eight Sleeps or supplements or whatever you're doing to improve your health, if you're going to do it online, there's an, there's an economic advantage, a tax savings from paying for it with pretax dollars through your HSA or FSA. And so TrueMed is this like layer on all of that.”

Steal thisBuild a thin payments/eligibility layer that taxes an entire category's volume instead of betting on one product trend.

Semi Analysis: a Substack that becomes the Moody's of the AI buildout

Semi Analysis looks like a newsletter but sells expensive prebuilt data models to hedge funds, banks and hyperscalers, and is expanding into a fund, angel investing and credit ratings. John's comp is Moody's, born in the railroad buildout and now an $80B business that didn't even move during the sell-off.

“So if you're familiar with Moody's, they do credit ratings. And Moody's got started during the railroad buildout because was the, the railroad bill that was so capital intensive that there was a huge, there was a huge secondary market for like, okay, is this person that's going to build this railroad from, from Chicago to Atlanta, like, are they good for it? Do they have the money? And so Moody's is now an $80 billion business.”

Steal thisStart a respected niche analysis publication in a capital boom, then expand into ratings, funds and data products like Moody's did.

Soylent was born from cutting the only line item left: food

John Coogan and his cofounders pre-paid rent and owned their gear, so food was their only real expense. Rob's fix was to replace meals with a 200-pound sack of protein powder, which became Soylent.

“We paid our rent a year in advance. I think we were paying $1,500 for 3 dudes to live in the heart of San Francisco, like crazy low money. We owned our laptops, paid our internet bill, like there was really no cost other than food. And so figuring out how to get food as cheap as possible was like a very logical you know, conclusion from that. So Rob starts whipping up the powders, figures out this meal replacement.”

Engineer a comment-bait controversy to ride the algorithm

Soylent's polarizing name and 'left-right' framing drove people to correct each other in the comments, which the old Facebook algorithm rewarded. That comment war turned every article viral and let them trade up from Vice to the New York Times and Colbert.

“this was back in the day when like the Facebook algorithm was like entirely comment driven. So people would correct us and they'd be like, oh, you made a mistake. You named, you accidentally named your company after a movie with Charlton Heston in it. That's a sci-fi movie. And it's like, no, obviously we, I did that on purpose.”

Steal thisBake a 'well-actually' hook into your name or post so people argue in the comments and the algorithm amplifies you.

Peter Thiel told Soylent it was a lifestyle business, then they raised VC anyway

In a 2013 working session, Thiel diagnosed that Soylent had no real moat or network effect and was just a widgets business to be run profitably. They had product-market fit but raised venture capital anyway, which Coogan calls a disaster.

“He was basically like, this is a great lifestyle business, guys. Congrats. And, and then we raised a bunch of venture and it was a disaster.”

Steal thisIf a great investor tells you you're a lifestyle business with no moat, believe them before you raise growth capital you can't grow into.

Soylent hit nearly $100M peak revenue

Coogan says Soylent's peak revenue reached almost $100 million, despite the eventual sale being a poor outcome for common shareholders.

“Like almost $100 mil, almost $100 mil.”

Beast VPN: a creator-owned VPN built for a global audience

Coogan's pitch is for a giant creator like MrBeast to launch their own VPN. It's the perfect creator product because it's high-margin, low-churn, and sells equally well to viewers in Japan, India, or Europe, monetizing the international audience that ads can't.

“And so what's a product that you can sell all everywhere across the world that's very high margin, low churn? VPN. And that's why VPNs are advertising all over YouTube is because it doesn't matter if the ad is served to someone in Japan or India or Europe, like the VPN's available there.”

Steal thisIf you own a global creator audience, sell a high-margin recurring product (like a VPN) that monetizes international viewers ads ignore.

Linus's $5M screwdriver vs a 99%-margin recurring VPN

Coogan notes Linus Tech Tips sold roughly $5M of a physical screwdriver, but a screwdriver ships expensively and isn't recurring. He argues the creator would have done better selling recurring software at 99% margin instead.

“The question is, like, would he have done better if instead of buying a screwdriver, which needed to be bought probably locally, or it was really expensive to ship internationally. He sold something that was recurring software that was 99% margin.”

Shotgun shell prices jumped from $10 to $16 in 3 years

Coogan cites that over three years the price of shotgun shells rose from $10 to $16 amid a massive shortage, part of why ammunition is an attractive roll-up target.

“So the— over the last 3 years, the price of shotgun shells went from $10 to $16. Pretty big increase. And there's this massive shortage.”

Shotgun shell prices jumped from $10 to $16 in 3 years

Coogan cites that over three years the price of shotgun shells rose from $10 to $16 amid a massive shortage, part of why ammunition is an attractive roll-up target.

“So the— over the last 3 years, the price of shotgun shells went from $10 to $16. Pretty big increase. And there's this massive shortage.”

1% of companies raise VC but they're ~99% of public market cap

Coogan's case for venture: only about 1% of companies that get started raise venture capital, yet roughly 99% of the market cap in the public markets took venture. That disproportionate outcome is why he argues big impact requires raising and growing fast.

“And my, my point is that basically only about 1% of companies that get started raise venture capital, but about 99% of the market cap in the public markets they took venture. And so venture has this very, like, like, disproportional outcome.”

'It's just a ChatGPT wrapper' is the wrong thing to tell young builders

Coogan's contrarian take on AI wrappers: dismissing them may be fair inside a VC investment committee, but it's the wrong message to broadcast to 17-19 year olds who are making real money and gaining experience building them.

“That might be a reasonable critique for a growth-stage venture capitalist to debate with their partners at an investment committee meeting. That is not necessarily what we should be putting out on Twitter or X to the next generation of young builders. And if you are, you know, I know a lot of these kids who are 17, 18, 19, and they're hacking and building ChatGPT rappers and some of them are making a ton of money and it's fine.”

Build a viral astrology app that exploits the Barnum effect with LLMs

Coogan's AI idea: LLMs are exceptional at the Barnum effect, generating statements that feel deeply personal but apply to everyone. He'd wrap that into a viral personality-quiz or astrology app, the 'Lensa moment' for ChatGPT.

“And so what I'm thinking is like, someone should take the, you know, ChatGPT LLMs and make some sort of like viral personality quiz, viral astrology app, something along those lines”

Steal thisWrap an LLM's Barnum-effect talent into a viral, paid personality or astrology quiz and chase the Lensa-style App Store moment.

The $500 tape scam: sell tape that costs $5 with a fake reorder

At 17, Coogan worked one day at a telemarketing operation that cold-called offices, faked being disconnected to reach the shipping department, and confirmed they still used 2-inch clear tape. They then shipped a $500 box of tape that cost $5 to make, priced so accounting departments would just rubber-stamp the invoice.

“And then they send it out with an invoice. So you don't need to collect the credit card details over the phone. They send it out with the invoice and they've priced this clear tape at exactly the level that they think most accounting, accounting departments will just stamp it. So it was $500 for a box of clear tape and it cost them $5 to produce this tape.”