Prediction
Miss
Ghost could become a multi-hundred-million-dollar company
Sam goes on record predicting Ghost -- an open-source WordPress/Substack competitor doing $3.5M/year as a nonprofit -- could become a multi-hundred-million-dollar business, comparing its trajectory to ConvertKit four years earlier.
“And so my prediction, and I want to go on record by saying this, is A, I think this is awesome. And B, I actually think that this could be a multi-hundred million dollar company in the making. And you could watch this guy build it in public.”
Take
Landing pages and automations as your digital salespeople
Shaan's mental model: a landing page, a ConvertKit automation, or a micro-SaaS tool is a 'digital salesperson' who works 24/7 at near-zero cost and does exactly what you say, predictably, every time.
“Like I love digital salespeople or a digital salesperson. That's what I think about when I think about landing pages or like this, like little like automations. That's a digital salesperson. That's somebody who's going to work 24/7 for me for zero cost or, you know, in this case, whatever it was, $29 a month. That's their salary. And they're going to do exactly what I say every single time predictably.”
Number
ConvertKit: $28M ARR, raising secondary at 7x ($200M valuation)
Sam bought ConvertKit secondary at 7x ARR. The numbers founder Nathan Barry shared: $28M ARR, $27.3M net revenue up 34%, 3.8% revenue churn, 36,000 customers, ~11-12% profit - implying a ~$200M valuation. Dharmesh (HubSpot) sparked the round.
$28M
ConvertKit ARR · USD/year
“we're putting together a secondary round at 7 times ARR. And we're looking to raise $2.5 million in total with $2.05— so $2 million already committed. ARR is $28 million. Net revenue is $27.3 million, which is up 34%. Revenue churn, 3.8%. Customers, 36,000. Profit this year, 11%, 12% profit.”
Framework
The SaaS 'dead zone': $200-300/year products plateau fast
Sam's heuristic from studying revenue graphs (Buffer, ConvertKit): software priced around $20-100/month hits a 'dead zone' where revenue ramps fast then plateaus, because it's incredibly hard to build a big company at $200-300/year price points. Mailchimp and Canva are rare exceptions.
“There's this dead zone of like $200 a year or $300 a year or something like that. And it's incredibly hard to build a big company when shit costs that much. Some people have done it. Mailchimp has done it. Canva has done it. I think it's almost impossible for most other types of people to do it.”
Steal thisIf your SaaS sits at $200-300/year, either drop to true low-touch self-serve scale or move upmarket — the mid-tier plateaus.
Fact
Open startups: companies that publish their revenue in real time
Shaan describes 'open startups'—companies like Buffer, Ghost, ConvertKit and Gumroad that publicly reveal metrics (revenue, growth, sometimes salaries) in real time. An aggregator site, openstartuplist.com, compiles them.
“there's this whole group of people, they call them open startups. If you Google like open startups, I think there's a website that compiles all of them and they're startups or companies that reveal their revenue in real time. You could see their burn or not.”
Number
ConvertKit: $22M ARR, profit sharing allocated purely by tenure
Sam cites Nathan Barry's ConvertKit doing ~$22M/year in recurring revenue with radical transparency. Barry's published profit-sharing method allocates by tenure alone, ignoring salary or job title.
$22M
Annual recurring revenue · USD/year
“ConvertKit is the name of his company. And he's one of these radical transparency type of guys. And he, so all of his company's revenue is on bare metrics and they do, I think, $22 million a year in recurring revenue. It's a really great company. And he revealed his profit sharing methodology.”
Number
ConvertKit: ~$2M MRR, 100% founder-owned, no outside investors
Sam highlights Nathan Barry's ConvertKit (a Mailchimp competitor) doing close to $2M in monthly recurring revenue (~$24M/year), fully owned by the founder, which he pegs as a $100-200M company because locked-in email customers rarely switch.
$2M
Monthly recurring revenue · USD/month
“And Nathan has this company called ConvertKit. They do close to $2 million in monthly recurring revenue. So $24 million. He owns 100% of it. It's probably a $100 to $200 million company. Like, it's really valuable because once customers are locked in, it's basically a Mailchimp competitor.”