Bessemer Venture Partners

Bessemer's top Shopify scenario was a $400M exit; it's now $130B

Shaan dug up Bessemer's original Series A memo on Shopify. The best-case scenario they modeled was a $400M exit at 3% probability; Shopify's market cap at recording was about $130 billion, showing how badly even elite investors underestimate category leaders.

“And at the top of the range they had was a $400 million exit they thought would take 6 years. And they thought, oh, there's a 3% chance that they can, that they can reach this mark. And, you know, looking at it right now, Shopify market cap is $120— basically $130 billion.”