Jeff Bezos

Bezos: don't predict change, predict what won't change

Shaan relays Bezos's framework: instead of guessing where retail goes, focus on what won't change — customers will always want faster shipping, lower prices, and more selection — and pour decades of effort into those constant levers.

“He's like, look, we try not to predict the future as much as We predict what's not going to change. Customers are not going to want slower shipping. They're never going to stop wanting faster shipping. They're never going to stop wanting the best prices. They're never going to stop wanting ever-increasing variety of choice for what they can buy.”

Steal thisBuild your strategy around the things customers will never stop wanting, not around fads you have to predict.

The Bezos hiring question: how lucky do you think you are, 1 to 10?

Sam shares the interview question Joe Gebbia asked him at Airbnb, originated by Jeff Bezos: how lucky are you on a scale of 1 to 10. The logic is that people who consider themselves lucky are either genuinely talented or attract good outcomes, and those are the people you want around you.

“people who, uh, say they're really lucky are the people I wanna be around. Right. I was like, why do you think that? And he goes, well, if you're lucky, if you think you're lucky, you must be talented and things just fall in your place or you actually are lucky. And I wanna surround myself with lucky people.”

Steal thisAsk candidates how lucky they feel on a 1-10 scale; favor the optimists who can explain why.

Manage inputs, not outputs — and run 'add-a-zero' projects

Shaan lays out the Bezos-style management framework: measure and promote people on the controllable inputs they pick and execute, not far-off outputs, so they'll take big swings that might fail. Pair it with a portfolio of 'add-a-zero' projects that either 10x revenue or go to zero.

“When you think about a project, you need to have enough projects in your portfolio that either add a zero or are a zero. What does that mean? So you don't want— if let's say that, let's say revenue's at, let's call it $10,000 a month. What you wanna do is you wanna have some projects that are gonna, that are gonna add a zero to the end of that. $10,000 becomes $100,000.”

Steal thisMeasure your team on the inputs they control, then always keep a few add-a-zero projects running.

Hot dog stand: $500 start, $1,000 days, $5,000 nights

Sam started Southern Sam's with $500, only enough for the first day's ingredients. Most days he made $100-$500 at ~50% margins, but working a concert all night could net $1,000-$5,000.

“I started it with $500. I was only able to afford the first day's ingredients and the first day it did okay, but it took me about a week to get a $1,000 day. With like 50% margins. Most days I would make between $100 and $500. If I would go and work all night or go to a concert, I could make $1,000 to $5,000 a night.”