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Aubrey de Grey

longevity escape-velocity TED talk

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’19’20’21’22’23’241’25’2613
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Longevity 'escape velocity': someone 10 years younger could live to 1,000

Summarizing Aubrey de Grey's TED Talk, Shaan explains the escape velocity idea: once rejuvenation therapy exists, people just below the damage threshold (today's 30-40 year-olds) could live to 1,000 while someone a decade older lives to 150, turning a 10-year age gap into a massive lifespan gap.

“but if you're 40 or 30 and we discover this, and at the time when we discover this, you have escape velocity, as I call it, meaning I'm going to give you the therapy before enough damage has happened and you're going to live— like the guy who's 10 years older than you is going to live till he's 150 and you're going to live till you're 1,000.”
EP 210 · 52:32 · SHAAN
Read at 52:32
mfmindex.com№ 0210-3152
Take

Breakthroughs are unpredictable; incremental progress isn't

Shaan relays de Grey's model of scientific progress: the breakthrough moment (like the Wright brothers in 1903) is nearly impossible to predict, but once it lands, roughly every 25 years brings reliable incremental improvement. So we can forecast the path after a breakthrough, just not its timing.

“He goes, in every field there are breakthroughs. Breakthroughs are extremely hard to predict when they happen. He's like, flight, even, you know, from prehistoric ages, we've had this idea of being able to fly and then nobody knew how to fly until like 1903. 1903, the Wright brothers figure out How to fly. And then from there, it's like every 25 years there's like a pretty big jump”
EP 210 · 55:21 · SHAAN
Read at 55:21
mfmindex.com№ 0210-3321