Annie Duke

Resulting: confusing a good decision with a good result

Svetski cites Annie Duke's 'Thinking in Bets' and the concept of resulting — mistaking a lucky outcome for a smart decision. He thought his early trading wins made him a genius, then doubled down all the way to ruin.

“And she talks about the idea of resulting, which is confusing a good decision with a good result. Yeah. And, and looking back on it, that's what I was doing. I was thinking, I'm a genius, I know how to make money, right? You know, this is how it works. So then on the way down, what did I do? I just doubled down the whole way until I lost everything.”

Steal thisJudge your trades by the quality of the decision, not the outcome; a win from a bad bet is still a bad bet.